This Weekend in NASCAR – Storylines – Texas

Next Race: AAA Texas 500
The Place: Texas Motor Speedway
The Date: Sunday, November 3
The Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN, 2:30 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 501 miles (334 laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 85), Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 170), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 334)
2018 Race Winner: Kevin Harvick

High expectations for Harvick

Kevin Harvick hasn’t celebrated in Victory Lane since a dominating victory in the regular season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 8, but he’s been close. And the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford heads into the final two races of this Playoff round a heavy favorite to hoist hardware at either this week’s AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET on NBSCN, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) or next week at Phoenix’s ISM Raceway.

Harvick, 43, earned all three of his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series victories this season in a seven-race span starting with the New Hampshire mile in July and ending with the notoriously challenging Indianapolis 2.5-miler in September. Since Indianapolis, he’s had six top-10 finishes in the seven Playoff races, including a best showing of runner-up in the Las Vegas Playoff opener and a third place at the Charlotte ROVAL.

In total he’s had 12 top-five and 23 top-10 finishes and his five pole-winning efforts ties him with Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron for most on the season. His 8.96 average start is best in the series, and his 10.6 average finish is fourth-best.

Only championship leader Martin Truex Jr. has equaled Harvick’s Playoff top 10 effort. And only Truex (6.2) has a better Playoff average finish than Harvick (7.0).

But while Truex’s win last week at Martinsville Speedway secured a position in the Championship 4, Harvick rolls into Texas ranked fifth in the championship standings, 14 points behind fellow Ford driver Joey Logano in that all-important fourth position in the standings.

The encouraging news for Harvick is that he’s secured a position in the Championship 4 in four of the previous five years of this title format and actually won the first version of it in 2014.

The Californian isn’t just “good” at the upcoming tracks, his 11 combined wins is the most of any current Playoff driver at Texas (two) and Phoenix (nine) – a mark that ties seven-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson (seven at Texas and four at Phoenix) for most among active drivers at the two venues.

Importantly, Harvick’s two wins at Texas have come at crucial times. He’s won the last two Playoff races there, securing his position to contend for the big trophy. He’s finished in the top-10 in the last 10 Texas races – with three runner-up finishes to compliment his two wins. In total at Texas he has 21 top-10 finishes in 33 starts – 64 percent of his races.

Should Harvick’s No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team continue on to Phoenix next week still looking for a Playoff win, he has the confidence of nine Phoenix victories, most in the field. His last Playoff win there came in 2014, the year Harvick won his series championship.

Hamlin’s championship path

Denny Hamlin’s season has been an example of sustained excellence.

After winning the season-opening Daytona 500 – his second career victory in the sport’s most famous race – he has steadily answered with victories on a wide variety of venues and turned in convincing showings even when he hasn’t hoisted a trophy. He is the most recent winner at this week’s Texas Motor Speedway, he won on the unique Pocono 2.5-miler this summer, answered that with a win from the pole position at Bristol Motor Speedway and then won a Playoff race at the Kansas two weeks ago.

His five victories mark the second-largest single-season trophy haul for the 38-year old Virginian. He won eight times in his 2010 championship runner-up season. His 18 top-five finishes this year is a personal best and his 22 top-10 efforts ties a personal high set in 2016 and 2017. He has the most top-five finishes in the series and only Kyle Busch (24) and Kevin Harvick (23) have more top 10 results.

While some of his closest competitors are enduring months of winless efforts, Hamlin has been consistent – especially on his game for the Playoffs. He has five top-five finishes through the opening seven Playoff races, winning a pair of pole positions (at Dover and Martinsville) and notching that win at Kansas – his first there since 2012. He’s led 404 laps in the seven Playoff races – 51.9 percent of his entire season total (777).

Hamlin arrives in Fort Worth tied with his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch for the most wins (three) there among the championship-eligible Playoff drivers. He’s had three top-10 finishes in the last eight Texas races and is one of only three drivers (Jimmie Johnson – 2015 and Carl Edwards – 2008) to score a season sweep at the track (2010).

Busch & Logano are riding long droughts

Two of the season’s most competitive championship contenders, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, remain among the top four in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoff standings heading into this week’s race at Texas Motor Speedway. But both seem overdue to return to Victory Lane.

Busch, a four-race winner and the 2019 regular season champion, heads into the AAA Texas 500 ranked third in the Playoff standings, seven points behind second-place Denny Hamlin. He’s 20 points behind standings leader and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr., who has already secured a spot in the Championship 4 with his win last weekend at Martinsville.

Team Penske driver Logano is a two-race winner this season and challenged Busch for the regular season title. He is currently fourth in the Playoff standings, three points behind third-place Busch and 14 points ahead of fifth-place Kevin Harvick.

But for all their early season success, neither Busch nor Logano has won a race since June – taking the checkered flag in consecutive weekends. They each have only three top-10 showings through the opening seven races of the Playoffs and neither has earned top 10s in consecutive Playoff races.

Busch was the quickest driver to reach four victories this season, earning his fourth on June 2 at Pocono. His 1,375 laps led on the season are most in the series. And his average finish of 9.5 through the first 33 races is second best in the series to his JGR teammate Denny Hamlin (9.2).

Since his victory at Pocono, however, Busch has 11 top-10 finishes in 19 races. Eight times he finished a race lower than he started on the grid, including a pair of season-low 37th-place finishes at Indianapolis and the Charlotte ROVAL. His best Playoff showing was a runner-up at Richmond Raceway – the second race of the Playoffs – where he led a race-high 202 laps but finished runner-up to Truex by more than two seconds.

Logano earned his wins in March at Las Vegas and this summer at Michigan, where he won from the pole position. His average start (10.7) this season is third best behind only Harvick (9.0) and his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski (10.1). He has 10 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes on the season.

However, in the 18 races since his Michigan win on June 10, he has only two top-five and seven top-10 showings. Eleven times in those 18 races, Logano has finished worse than he’s started. His best Playoff showing is an eighth place last week at Martinsville.

Busch and Hamlin are tied with the most Texas wins (three) among the eight Playoff drivers, his last coming in the spring of 2018. Logano has one Texas win in the spring race in 2014. Busch has a pair of top 10s – including the win – in his last five Texas starts. Logano had a string of six consecutive top-10 finishes at Texas snapped this March, when he finished 17th.

Time to Texas two-step

Of the eight Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoff drivers competing for a position inside the Championship 4 at the Nov. 17 Homestead-Miami season finale, four of them have never won at Texas Motor Speedway or Phoenix’s ISM Raceway.

Last week’s winner Martin Truex Jr. – a seven-time race winner this season – headlines this group of four Playoff competitors vying for a first-time win at either track. Truex has a pair of runner-up finishes at Texas, including the 2017 Playoff race in the season he went on to win the Cup title. He’s led 373 laps in just the last eight Texas races – 61 percent of his career total in 28 starts.

His work at Phoenix is similar. He was runner-up there this March and earned three of his four career top-five finishes in just the last four races at the one-miler. He was 14th in last year’s Phoenix Playoff race. And best of all for Truex, his win at Martinsville guarantees his position in the Championship 4 regardless of where he finishes this week or next week.

Although he suffered a frustrating 37th-place finish at Texas in March, Ryan Blaney has a positive history at the big track with three top-10 finishes in nine starts. He won the pole position and finished runner-up in last year’s November Playoff race there, leading 40 laps. He enters the race ranked sixth among the eight Playoff drivers, 15 points behind fourth-place Joey Logano in the final cutoff position.

The driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford has fared well at Phoenix too, winning the pole position and finishing third in March. The 94 laps Blaney led are the bulk of the 108 career laps led there. He also won the pole position for the 2017 Playoff race and has three top-10 finishes in seven Phoenix starts.

Kyle Larson comes to Texas Motor Speedway ranked seventh in the Playoff standings, 24 points behind fourth-place Joey Logano. The driver of the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet shows up in Fort Worth fresh off a top-10 finish at Martinsville – a track that has historically delivered heartbreak. His history at Texas has been one of extremes. He has three top-five finishes, including a runner-up showing in April 2017. He was fifth in last year’s Playoff race; however, he’s crashed out in three of the last four races at Texas – including this April.

The famous ISM Raceway one-miler would appear to be right in Larson’s wheelhouse. The short track star has five top-10 finishes in 11 starts, including a runner-up finish in spring, 2017. He was sixth this March. He seems to have his best outings during the fall Playoff stretch with third-place finishes in both the 2016 and 2018 Playoff races.

Chase Elliott finds himself essentially in a must-win situation for the final two races of this penultimate round. He sits 44 points behind fourth-place Joey Logano heading to Texas. But Elliott has celebrated in the track’s Victory Lane before – earning his first NASCAR Xfinity Series win there in 2014 en route to his first series championship. He has five top-10 finishes in seven starts, including the first four Cup races he ran there. His best showing is fourth place in the 2016 Playoffs. He finished sixth in the Texas Playoff race last year and was 13th this March.

The newly-reconstructed ISM Raceway provides similarly encouraging history for the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. He has four top-10 finishes in seven starts with a best showing of runner-up in the 2017 Playoff race there. He started on the outside pole this March and finished 14th.

John Hunter Nemechek making Cup debut

Up-and-coming young driver John Hunter Nemechek has been tabbed to drive the No. 36 Front Row Motorsports Ford for the remainder of the season while the car’s fulltime driver Matt Tifft is out of the car. Tifft required medical attention at the Martinsville (Va.) Speedway and was transported to a local hospital last Saturday afternoon and did not compete in Sunday’s race.

According to the team’s press release, Tifft will be undergoing further evaluation under the care of his medical team and Front Row Motorsports said it hopes the 23-year old Ohio native will return to the driver’s seat upon medical clearance.

“Our thoughts are still with Matt and his family,’’ Front Row Motorsports General Manager Jerry Freeze said Tuesday. “We feel that John Hunter can step up and do a great job for us as Matt heals.’’

Tifft earned his first Cup series top-10 finish – a ninth place – at Daytona International Speedway this summer and had four top-20 finishes, most recently a 13th place showing at Talladega Superspeedway. He finished top-10 in the Xfinity Series championship in 2017 and 2018 with a career-best showing of runner-up at Road America in 2018.

Nemechek, the 22-year-old son of four-time Cup race winner Joe Nemechek, will make his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series debut this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Currently an Xfinity Series rookie, he is ranked ninth in that series’ standings with four top-five and 16 top-10 finishes. He won a Xfinity race at Kansas in 2017 while driving part-time in the series and is a six-race winner in the NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series.

“This isn’t the way any driver wants to make their Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series debut,’’ Nemechek said. “I am hoping that Matt feels better and can get back in his car as soon as possible. That is what is important.

“Hopefully I can learn a lot and make Matt, the Front Row Motorsports team and its partners proud.’’

Next Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 300
The Place: Texas Motor Speedway
The Date: Saturday, November 2
The Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN, 8 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 300 miles (200 Laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 45), Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 90), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 200)
2018 Race Winner: Cole Custer

Texas Motor Speedway sets the stage for the Xfinity Playoffs

Just two races remain (Texas and ISM Raceway) in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff’s Round of 8 to decide who makes it to the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Up next is Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 on Saturday, November 2, at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

Texas has hosted the fifth event of the seven-race NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs since its inception in 2016. Three different drivers have won the Texas Xfinity Playoff race, but only one was a Playoff contender. And in all three of the previous Texas Playoff races the eventual series champion has finished in the top 10.

2016 Playoff race recap – Driving for Chip Ganassi Racing, Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series contender Kyle Larson took the lead from Brad Keselowski on Lap 171 and led the final 30 laps to victory. Prior to the fifth and final lead change of the race by Larson, Keselowski had dominated the contest, leading 145 of the 200 scheduled laps. Just three Xfinity Playoff contenders finished in the top 10 – Erik Jones (fourth), Daniel Suarez (fifth) and Elliott Sadler (sixth). Suarez would go on to win the Xfinity title in 2016.

2017 Playoff race recap – After moving up to the Monster Energy Series to drive for Furniture Row Racing in 2017, Erik Jones would occasionally sharpen his skills driving for Joe Gibbs Racing in the Xfinity Series. Jones won the 2017 Texas Playoff race piloting the JGR No. 20 Toyota, dominating the event while leading 142 of the scheduled 200 laps. The race saw 10 lead changes among six drivers. Four Xfinity Playoff drivers finished inside the top-10 – Elliott Sadler (fourth), Cole Custer (fifth), Brennan Poole (seventh) and William Byron (ninth). Byron would go on to win the Xfinity title in 2017.

2018 Playoff race recap – Last season, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Cole Custer won the Texas Motor Speedway Playoff race and guaranteed his spot in the Championship 4. Custer was first Xfinity Series Playoff contender to win the postseason race at Texas. Of the three Playoff races at Texas, the 2018 race was the most dynamic, delivering 17 lead changes among nine different leaders, and a last-lap pass by Custer over Tyler Reddick to win the race by a scant margin of 0.162 – the third-closest finish in series history at the track. Seven Playoff contenders finished in the top 10 – Custer (first), Reddick (second), Austin Cindric (third), Justin Allgaier (fifth), Matt Tifft (seventh), Elliott Sadler (eighth) and Daniel Hemric (10^th). Reddick would go on to win the title last year.

Big 3 has Xfinity Playoff competition tensions running-high

With the close action on the track and heated exchanges on pit road, tensions have run high in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs this season, and though they are having an historic year, the Big 3 are no exception.

“I thought we had a shot to win. Just, a lot of things went wrong (at Kansas),” said Cole Custer. “I went up just to yell at him (Tyler Reddick). But when I put my arm on his shoulder, he went berserk. So, I guess, you don’t want to do that to Tyler.”

The two drivers (Reddick & Custer) made contact in the closing laps at Kansas and Reddick finished second while Custer fell to an 11th-place finish. Bell rebounded from an incident on Lap 185 to finish 12th.

“Not the end of the race that our guys are looking for,” said Reddick. “But I think a lot of Cole and his driving ability and a lot of that team. It’s just the heat of the moment. We’re pissed off. I’m sure we’ll talk about it here soon. Maybe today, tomorrow. Who knows, maybe have a beer over it. We’ll talk about it then.”

Bell, Custer, Reddick prepare for Texas

The Big 3 – Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Cole Custer and Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick – are now separated by a mere 12 points in the Playoff standings with just two races left to decide who will move on to the Championship 4 in Miami.

Bell holds the Playoff standings lead with 3,106 points after Kansas; followed by Cole Custer (-11) in second and Tyler Reddick (-12) in third. Heading to Texas this weekend for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 (Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), fourth-place Justin Allgaier is in fourth, another 35 points behind Reddick.

Custer is the defending Texas Playoff race winner. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver led 16 laps and grabbed the checked flag last season to secure his position in the Championship 4. Texas is one of Custer’s best tracks, in five starts he has one win (2018 Playoffs), four top fives and an average finish of 9.8 (best of the Big 3).

JGR’s Bell has also found success at Texas. In four series starts he has put up two poles, two top fives, three top 10s and an average finish of 10.8. Bell sat on the pole for this race last season and led 35 laps but finished 32nd due to an incident. Watch for Bell to rebound this weekend as the rising star finished third at the 1.5-mile facility earlier this season.

Last season’s Texas Playoff race was a big step in Reddick’s ascension to the Championship 4 and ultimately the title; as he finished runner-up to take the standings lead heading to Phoenix. This year driving for RCR, Reddick is on pace to defend his title. In four starts at Texas he has posted two top fives and an average finish of 15.0.

Next Race: Lucas Oil 150
The Place: ISM Raceway
The Date: Friday, November 8
The Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1, 8 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 150 miles (150 Laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 45), Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 90), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 150)
2018 Winner: Brett Moffitt