Eliminators – By the Numbers at Phoenix Int’l Raceway

Phoenix Is Harvick’s Race To Win

If Kevin Harvick had to hand-pick a track to race in a “win-or-go-home” situation, he would likely choose Phoenix International Raceway.

Harvick boasts a series-best five wins at the one-mile tri-oval and has taken the checkered flag in three of the last four races there, including the past two.

Currently eighth in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings, Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500 cutoff race at Phoenix (3 p.m. ET on ESPN) could not have come at a better time for the No. 4 Chevrolet driver. Harvick trails Jeff Gordon by just six points for the coveted fourth – and final – spot needed for advancement to the Championship Round race at Homestead.

But, he can make can punch his ticket to Miami without having to rely on the misfortune of others by winning for a third consecutive time at the one-mile track.

Coming off a runner-up finish at Texas, Harvick travels to the Sonoran Desert with some needed momentum after opening the Eliminator Round with a 33rd-place finish at Martinsville. Equipped with a fast Stewart-Haas racing Chevrolet, the 38-year-old has led the most laps in the series this season (1,819) and has captured the most Coors Light Pole Awards (8). Harvick boasts three wins this year, the most-recent coming at Charlotte on Oct. 11.

To put Harvick’s Phoenix success into context, the track was repaved for the 2011 fall race, making it completely different with changes that included concrete pit stalls, progressive banking and degree alterations to the dogleg and turns. Since then, he has won three of the six events there and also posted a runner-up finish. In his 18 Phoenix races prior to the repave, Harvick averaged a finish of 13.8. In the six races since, he has an average of just 6.2.

With a victory on Sunday, Harvick can sweep the track for the second time in his career (2006).

Keselowski Back In Hunt, With Similar Challenges

Following a 31st-place finish in the Eliminator Round opener at Martinsville, it looked like series wins leader Brad Keselowski had to visit Victory Lane at Texas or Phoenix to advance to the series championship.

After a bounce-back third-place Fort Worth finish, Keselowski now ranks seventh in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings, just five points behind Jeff Gordon for the final spot to be among the Championship 4.

The 2012 NSCS title winner has one more shot to either close the points gap or win to make the Championship 4 at Homestead – this Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.

In 10 starts at Phoenix, Keselowski boasts three top fives and a sixth-place finish, all since the track was repaved in 2011. He won the pole and took third at the one-mile tri-oval in March.

The 30-year-old Michigan native only controls his Chase destiny by winning, a feat he already has accomplished during this Chase. Just three weeks ago, Keselowski saw his 2014 championship window close following a 16th-place Charlotte finish, followed by a post-race antics fracas involving him, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin. The following week? He won at Talladega to advance to this Eliminator Round.

Now, another driver has a target on Keselowski’s back – Jeff Gordon.

On a late restart at Texas, Keselowski attempted to shoot the gap between Gordon and Jimmie Johnson for the victory – similar to his move that won him the Chase opener at Chicagoland. He failed to make it through, popping Gordon’s left-rear tire on contact and plummeting the No. 24 driver from second to 29th.

After the race, Gordon took exception to Keselowski’s move and the two drivers brawled along with their pit crews.

“That’s just uncalled for,” Gordon said. “You’re racing for a win and a championship. You don’t go slam someone and cut their left-rear tire. If that’s what it takes, then no problem. We can do the same thing to him.”

Keselowski maintained he was trying to win, the same task he will attempt in Phoenix.

“I am doing everything I can to win this championship racing at 100 percent and that is something I am not going to be ashamed for,” he said. “If I was out there wrecking guys to do it, that would be one thing, but a little bit of rubbing is how this sport was created and probably how it should move forward. I don’t mind getting raced that way and I don’t mind racing that way.”

Gordon Looks To Rebound From Hard-Luck Texas Finish

Jeff Gordon’s Championship 4 status went from near-lock to questionable in an instant on Sunday at Texas after contact from Brad Keselowski cut his rear-left tire, dropping him from first all the way to 29th.

The No. 24 driver now ranks fourth in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings – just one point ahead of Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. If not for the cut tire, he likely would be in first with a hefty lead.

To advance to the Championship race at Homestead, Gordon must either win Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway, finish in the top-three in points at the conclusion of the race, or finish fourth in points and have no Chase-contending driver currently behind him in the standings visit Victory Lane in Arizona.

Gordon can rebound from his hard-luck Fort Worth finish at Phoenix where he has claimed two victories. Both came before the track was repaved and modified, but he does hold three top-10 finishes in the six races since then, including a fifth-place showing in March.

The 43-year-old Gordon is attempting to win his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. If he is successful in his “drive for five,” Gordon will set the record – 13 years – for most time between titles. He won his fourth NSCS crown in 2001 and ranks fourth on NASCAR’s all-time premier series championship list.

Three Eliminators In Clinching Drivers’ Seat

No help. No problem.

Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman are the only drivers who can clinch Championship berths at Homestead in Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway regardless of how others finish.

Logano and Hamlin can both advance to Homestead with finishes of 11th or better, 12th with one lap led, or 13th with the most laps led.

Newman can qualify for Homestead by finishing ninth or better, 10th with one lap led, or 11th with the most laps led.

Of the three drivers, Hamlin has had the most success at Phoenix with one victory and eight top fives in 18 starts. He is coming off consecutive top 10 finishes in his last two races, the only Eliminator 8 driver to score top 10s in each of the two Eliminator Round races.

Newman is not far behind Hamlin’s pace with one win, eight top-five and 10 top-10 showings in 24 starts at the one-mile tri-oval. The Richard Childress Racing driver had his streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes snapped after a 15th-place showing at Texas.

Logano finished fourth at Phoenix in March and claims five top-10 finishes in 11 career starts there. He boasts the highest average finish in Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup races this season (5.3).

Despite not needing a win or even a top-five finish to advance to Homestead, Hamlin claims not being aggressive would hurt the three drivers’ chances of reaching Championship Round.

“I think as tense as eight drivers are going to be this weekend, cautious is going to make you finish about 17th,” Hamlin said. “There’s a lot of factors that track does not allow you to be conservative at.”

Kenseth, Edwards Eye Miami

Under the radar, yet looming just one point behind Jeff Gordon for the final spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Round race at Homestead are Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards.

The two drivers have yet to win a Chase race, but have survived up to this point by avoiding disastrous finishes and posting timely strong showings. Edwards may have saved his championship hopes last week at Texas when he rallied from 30th to ninth over the last 81 laps. Kenseth’s defining moment in NASCAR’s playoffs so far was his decision to draft off rival Brad Keselowski to a second-place finish at Talladega, a move that clinched him a spot in the Eliminator Round.

Kenseth and Edwards head to Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 where each has had varying success. Kenseth owns a win at the one-mile tri-oval, but has only claimed one top-10 finish since the track was repaved for the 2011 fall race. On the other hand, Edwards claims a win and a runner-up finish in the six races since the track was repaved.

Both drivers should be considered serious championship contenders if they get to Homestead. Edwards has two victories and boasts an average finish of 6.6 at the Miami course, while Kenseth finished runner-up there last year and won its race in 2007.